The global economy is still expected to grow at a solid pace this year, but worsening trade confrontations pose serious risks to the outlook, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.

The IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook forecast global growth of 3.9 percent this year and next, despite sharp downgrades to estimates for Germany, France and Japan compared to its April report.

But the fund warns growth could be cut by a half point by 2020 if tariff threats are carried out.

The US economy is still seen growing by 2.9 percent this year, and the estimate for China remains 6.6 percent, with little impact expected near term from the tariffs the countries have imposed on each other so far.

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